Key takeaways
- Duke’s study found 76 GW, 98 GW and 126 GW of “curtailment-enabled headroom” at 0.25%, 0.5% and 1% average annual curtailment.1
- In the study, average curtailment events lasted about two hours, and nearly 90% of curtailment hours retained at least half of the new load.4
- Google has demand response agreements with Indiana Michigan Power and TVA to pause or reschedule non-urgent machine learning work during grid stress.56
- A 2025 field test in Phoenix held a 25% power reduction on an AI cluster for three hours using only workload orchestration.7
- ERCOT lets qualifying large loads offer flexibility as Controllable Load Resources dispatched every five minutes.28
- Flexibility speeds interconnection mainly by letting a load connect before firm upgrades are finished; it does not remove the need for a load study.39
01What a “flexible” data center load is
Most data centers are designed to draw steady power around the clock. A flexible data center is one that can reduce its draw from the grid on request, for a defined period, without breaking its service commitments. The reduction can come from three places: the IT load itself, the facility systems that support it, or on-site resources that replace grid power for a few hours.
Duke’s researchers describe two kinds of IT flexibility. Temporal flexibility means rescheduling tasks such as AI model training to ride through a short curtailment. Spatial flexibility means shifting computation to data centers in regions that are not under stress.1 Inference that serves live users is harder to move than a training job that can checkpoint and pause.
Fig. 1Where a data center’s flexibility comes from
IT load
Shift compute
- Pause or reschedule training and batch jobs
- Move work to another region
- Cap GPU power or clock speed
- Least hardware cost, most software work
On-site supply
- Batteries for short events
- Permitted generation for longer ones
- Emergency engines limited by air rules
- Adds equipment and land
Facility systems
- Pre-cool, then trim cooling load
- Thermal storage where designed in
- Limited by temperature limits
- Usually a smaller share
Flexibility differs from firm versus non-firm service, which is a contract term about what the grid owes you. Flexibility is a capability. A site needs the capability before it can sign the contract; see firm vs. interruptible power for the service side and the glossary entry on curtailment.
02The Duke “Rethinking Load Growth” headroom study
Published in February 2025 by Duke University’s Nicholas Institute for Energy, Environment and Sustainability, “Rethinking Load Growth” asked how much new load the existing U.S. system could absorb if that load were willing to curtail briefly during the hours when the system is tightest.14 It introduced the term “curtailment-enabled headroom” for that quantity.1
The study looked at the 22 largest balancing authority areas, which together serve about 95% of U.S. load.1 At an average annual curtailment rate of 0.25% of maximum uptime, they could accommodate up to 76 GW of new load, about 10% of the nation’s aggregate peak demand; at 0.5% the figure was 98 GW, and at 1% it was 126 GW.1
Fig. 2Curtailment-enabled headroom by curtailment rate
- 0.25% curtailment76
- 0.5% curtailment98
- 1.0% curtailment126
GW of new load
Two details make the result more practical than it first sounds. The average curtailment event lasted about two hours, and nearly 90% of the hours in which curtailment was needed retained at least half of the new load, so the typical event is a partial reduction, not a shutdown.4 The authors note the implied curtailment time is comparable to existing demand response programs.4
03Curtailment agreements and demand response deals
The first commercial agreements tie flexibility to specific facilities. In 2025 Google announced agreements with Indiana Michigan Power and the Tennessee Valley Authority under which it would reschedule or pause non-urgent machine learning workloads when the grid is strained.56 It described these as its first demand response arrangements aimed specifically at machine learning work, building on an earlier pilot with Omaha Public Power District in which it reduced ML-related demand during three grid events.56
Google said the benefit is that large loads can be interconnected more quickly and the need for new transmission and power plants reduced.5 That is the core bargain: the utility gets a load it can count on to drop at peak, and the customer gets an earlier or larger connection than a fully firm study would allow.
Grid operators are building the same bargain into tariffs. SPP’s non-firm CHILLS service lets large loads connect on available capacity for up to seven years while firm service is secured, and PJM’s Board has directed a “connect and manage” framework in which new large loads that do not bring their own generation are curtailed before pre-emergency demand response.39 Pacific Gas and Electric’s Flex Connect program offers faster distribution connections in exchange for curtailment agreements while upgrades are built.10
04Can a data center actually deliver?
Utilities need to trust that a load will drop when called. The Electric Power Research Institute launched its DCFlex initiative in October 2024 to test this, with founding members including Google, Meta, NVIDIA, ERCOT, PJM, Duke Energy, Southern Company and several data center developers.11 By February 2026 DCFlex counted nine field demonstration sites, ranging from compute flexibility tests in Chicago to geographic load shifting between Ashburn, Virginia and Chicago, and a Manassas, Virginia campus under construction with flexibility designed in.12
The best-documented result so far comes from Phoenix, where Emerald AI, Oracle Cloud Infrastructure, NVIDIA and Salt River Project ran a test through DCFlex. The AI cluster ramped down over 15 minutes, held a 25% power reduction for three hours and ramped back without exceeding its original baseline, using workload orchestration and techniques such as GPU frequency scaling rather than batteries or new hardware.7
Fig. 3Phoenix AI cluster flexibility test
A single test on one cluster is not a fleet-wide commitment. Developers selling flexibility to a utility should expect to show telemetry, a control interface and a track record, and to accept penalties if the load does not respond.
05ERCOT: Controllable Load Resources and the 4CP signal
Texas has the most developed market path for flexible loads. In ERCOT, a Controllable Load Resource (CLR) is a load resource capable of controllably reducing or increasing consumption under ERCOT dispatch, receiving new base points through security-constrained economic dispatch every five minutes.28 Qualifying large loads can participate in ancillary services as CLRs or non-controllable load resources, and ERCOT has observed large-load participation in Responsive Reserve, Non-Spin and ERCOT Contingency Reserve Service.8
Registration takes work. A CLR registers with ERCOT, acts through a qualified scheduling entity, follows dispatch instructions and must submit primary frequency response test results.8 Loads that can drop almost instantly, such as cryptocurrency mining, fit this model most easily; AI and cloud data centers with strict uptime commitments find it harder.
ERCOT also has an economic signal. Transmission charges for many large customers are based on their demand during the four 15-minute intervals of system peak in June through September (the “4CP”), so reducing load during those intervals cuts the next year’s transmission costs.13 In March 2026 the PUCT sought comments on a draft report on transmission cost recovery in ERCOT, and SB 6 requires it to amend its rules by December 31, 2026, so this signal may change.14
Separately, Texas Senate Bill 6 requires new non-critical large loads of 75 MW or more to support remote disconnection in emergencies and directs new demand-response services.15 See Texas Senate Bill 6 and ERCOT site selection.
06How flexibility speeds interconnection, and its limits
Flexibility does not create transmission. What it changes is the planning question. A firm load must be served at its full peak through the worst studied contingencies, so the planner sizes upgrades to that hour. A load that agrees to curtail in those few hours can be served from capacity that already exists in the other hours, and connected before upgrades are complete.13
Fig. 4How a flexible load gets connected sooner
- 01
Define the flex
MW that can drop, notice needed, hours per year.
- 02
Load study
Utility tests firm and flexible portions.
- 03
Agreement
Curtailment terms, telemetry, penalties.
- 04
Early connection
Serve load on existing capacity.
- 05
Convert to firm
When upgrades or new supply arrive.
- The flexible portion still needs a physical connection: a tap, substation and transformer capacity on site.
- Curtailment terms bind operations for years and may affect customer contracts and financing.
- Running backup engines to cover curtailment is limited under federal air rules to 100 non-emergency hours a year, with up to 50 for qualifying demand response.16
- If many loads near one substation are flexible, their combined behavior has to be studied, not each in isolation.
Our guides to on-site generation and bridge power and microgrids and battery storage cover the equipment that makes flexibility possible without touching compute.
07Putting flexibility into a site plan
- 01Decide early how much of the planned load could curtail, for how long and with what notice, and put it in the ramp schedule.
- 02Ask the utility or RTO whether it offers conditional, non-firm or flexible connection, and how flexibility changes the study result.
- 03Size on-site batteries or permitted generation to the curtailment you are offering, and check the air permit.
- 04Reserve land for that equipment and any fuel supply in the site layout.
- 05Plan telemetry and controls that the utility can verify.
A parcel that looks too constrained for firm service may still work with flexibility, and flexibility may be the difference between a five-year wait and an earlier start. If you want to know how a specific parcel stands, get a site reviewed or start with our tools.
Common questions
What did the Duke “Rethinking Load Growth” study find?
It estimated that the 22 largest U.S. balancing authority areas could absorb 76 GW of new load at an average annual curtailment rate of 0.25%, 98 GW at 0.5% and 126 GW at 1%.1 Average curtailment events lasted about two hours, and most required only a partial reduction.4
Can AI data centers really do demand response?
Some can, for some workloads. Google has agreements with Indiana Michigan Power and TVA to pause or reschedule non-urgent machine learning work during grid stress.56 A 2025 Phoenix test held a 25% reduction for three hours on an AI cluster using software alone.7 Latency-sensitive inference is harder to move.
What is an ERCOT Controllable Load Resource?
A CLR is a load resource that can reduce or increase consumption under ERCOT dispatch, receiving updated base points every five minutes.28 Qualifying large loads can provide ancillary services such as Responsive Reserve and Non-Spin, after registering and passing frequency response testing.8
Does flexibility get a data center connected faster?
It can, where the utility or RTO offers a conditional or non-firm path. SPP’s CHILLS and PJM’s connect-and-manage framework both let large loads connect ahead of firm upgrades on the condition that they curtail when needed.39 Confirm with the utility what flexibility changes in your specific study.
How often would a flexible data center be curtailed?
It depends on the agreement. In Duke’s modeling, a 0.25% to 1% average annual curtailment rate is the equivalent of roughly 22 to 88 hours a year of full curtailment, with average events of about two hours.14 Real agreements specify maximum hours, notice and duration, so read the terms closely.
Notes
- 1.Nicholas Institute for Energy, Environment & Sustainability, Duke University, “Rethinking Load Growth: Assessing the Potential for Integration of Large Flexible Loads in US Power Systems,” 2025. nicholasinstitute.duke.edu
- 2.Electric Reliability Council of Texas, “Ancillary Services Handout,” 2023. ercot.com
- 3.Utility Dive, “FERC approves SPP non-firm, large-load transmission service,” 2026. utilitydive.com
- 4.Nicholas Institute for Energy, Environment & Sustainability, Duke University, “Three Key Takeaways from Rethinking Load Growth in US Power Systems,” 2025. nicholasinstitute.duke.edu
- 5.Google, “How we’re making data centers more flexible to benefit power grids,” 2025. blog.google
- 6.Data Center Dynamics, “Google partners with I&M and TVA to expand use of demand response at its AI data centers,” 2025. datacenterdynamics.com
- 7.NVIDIA, “How AI Factories Can Help Relieve Grid Stress,” 2025. blogs.nvidia.com
- 8.Electric Reliability Council of Texas, “Large Loads and Ancillary Services,” 2024. ercot.com
- 9.PJM Interconnection Board of Managers, “PJM Board Letter re Results of the CIFP Process: Large Load Additions,” 2026. pjm.com
- 10.Latitude Media, “PG&E is laying the groundwork for flexible data center interconnection,” n.d. latitudemedia.com
- 11.Utility Dive, “EPRI launches data center flexibility initiative with utilities, Google, Meta, NVIDIA,” 2024. utilitydive.com
- 12.Electric Power Research Institute, “DCFlex Demonstrations,” 2026. dcflex.epri.com
- 13.Grid Status, “ERCOT’s 4CP Summer Demand Roller Coaster Takes Off as Storage Flips Outcomes,” 2025. blog.gridstatus.io
- 14.K&L Gates, “Request for Comments on Texas PUCT Draft Report Regarding Transmission Cost Recovery in the ERCOT Region,” 2026. klgates.com
- 15.National Law Review, “Texas Senate Bill 6 Ushers In Major Overhaul of Large Load Interconnection and Grid Access Rules,” 2025. natlawreview.com
- 16.Sidley Austin, “US EPA Issues New Guidance on Data Center Emergency Generator Operations,” 2025. sidley.com
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This guide is general information about data center site selection. It is not engineering, legal, tax or investment advice. Requirements vary by state, utility and county, so confirm the specifics for any site with the relevant authorities and advisors.
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